Historical analysis of the mid-1990s suggests 2019 is all about a change in Fed perceptions vs. slowing growth and trade tensions. The market has been in the intermediate-term bottoming process since the increased fear of Fed and trade created the initial extreme oversold condition on 10/26. Like other interest-rate and global growth corrections this cycle, the retesting environment and bottoming process is totally demoralizing and could continue to worsen until investors 1) hear a more dovish interest rate outlook from the Fed on Wednesday; and 2) get confirmation from our rally requirement indicators.
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