Good morning everyone, and today is sure to be an important day. Early this week we highlighted some issues that were sure to bring increased volatility to the market, but we had no idea in which direction. So far each of them appear to be resolved in a market friendly way. The Fed made clear they were not going to raise rates for the foreseeable future, President Trump approved the phase 1 of the U.S.-China Trade Deal (still waiting to hear from China), and Boris Johnson won the U.K. Election in a landslide. The major market indices responded by reaching record highs, and nearly all the economists and strategists are finally coming around to our idea the U.S. economy is emerging from the 3rd mini-recession of the current cycle and the Fed is on the sidelines for the foreseeable future.
Longtime subscribers know our whole bullish thesis in 2019 was built around the idea the U.S. economy would slow enough to make the Fed go from tightening at the end of 2018, to easing throughout 2019 due to the slowing effects of the 2018 rise in rates and global manufacturing slowdown. Our core fundamental thesis and reason for raising our 2020 S&P 500 (SPX) target on Monday is built around continued low short-term interest rates, neutralized Fed, and positive inflection of the global economy as seen through yesterday’s Slide Deck Chart Update.
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