This morning looks like another wild one – this time to the downside:


Monday – Market up huge and it felt like the correction was over

Tuesday – Market tanked and it felt like the bottom would fall out

Wednesday – The Dow saw its second 1000+ up day in just three days and it felt like the market was going right back to the high

This morning – Covid-19 fear is back on the front burner and it looks like futures are going to be down over 2%


My point is that with all the volatility over the last few days, the S&P 500 (SPX) is simply consolidating the 12% whoosh from a week ago.  History shows this kind of volatility happens closer to important intermediate-term lows rather than at tops.  The key question is whether the economy falls into recession, and there is simply no way to say either way until we have more information on the spread of Covid-19.  Clearly, the odds are picking up the more we get companies and associations cancelling events and working from home but it is simply too early to tell.


One thing I know is that we are much closer to putting offense back on the field than we were a week ago.


Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index returns are unmanaged and do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses.


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