Yield curve mythbuster — part 2
Last week saw both the equity and fixed income markets stay in a narrow trading range, which was a very welcome sign of stability given the potential dislocating news backdrop…
Read MoreDespite the Fed’s efforts, inflation was flat in September
Headline consumer prices were unchanged in September on a month-over-month basis, missing the consensus estimate and August reading of 0.1%.
Read More10/8/19 Economic Week Ahead
Today PPI and NFIB Small Business Optimism released and there a number of significant data points still to come. Tomorrow the FOMC Meeting Minutes from their September meeting will be…
Read MoreOctober Macro Slide Deck – Tinderbox meets fire extinguisher
The offset to the potential tinderbox is a powerful fire extinguisher. How could we possibly have a positive core thesis with a tinderbox full of drama, including a possible Presidential…
Read MoreSmall business confidence declined for the second month
The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) reported small business confidence fell to the lowest level since March.
Read MoreEven more evidence of 3rd “mini-recession” and need for Fed
The September ISM Non-Manufacturing Index that measures sentiment on Services disappointed consensus expectations by dropping to 52.6 vs. the estimate of 55.0. Remember, anything above 50 suggests expansion, but the…
Read MoreThoughts on market swoon and comparisons to 4Q/18
The recent bout of selling has brought our two most sensitive tactical indicators into oversold territory that should surround at least a temporary low:
Read MoreWeak ISM reading confirms “mini-recession” view
Yesterday’s ISM Manufacturing Index saw a large drop to the lowest level of the past 10-years (Figure 1). In our view it represents evidence of what we already know –…
Read More10/01/19 Economic Week Ahead
The upcoming week will feature a number of significant economic data releases. Due out this week are: Markit US PMI Data, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, ADP Employment Change, Factory Orders,…
Read MoreStop looking for what was already found
There is no need to look for something that is hiding in plain sight. While the financial media and macro community try to figure out when the next major recession…
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