The S&P 500 (SPX) is up roughly 12% from the Christmas time low, and has matched the reflex rally that took place following the 2011 market crash that took the SPX down 20%.  In other words, this ramp over the past three weeks is what typically happens following a market event like we saw in the 4Q/18.  The question is whether the market just marches higher, or goes through a retest, which has been the case in the three prior 20% drops in under 4 months outside of a recession (1987, 1998, 2011).  Our playbook was for the reflex rally, and then a retest, followed by new highs as we move toward the summer.

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