Our positive outlook for 2021 is centered on the combination of historic excess liquidity coupled with a synchronized global recovery as we move past a likely early-year Covid-19-related stall. We believe both the economy and market are in the early stages of a new cycle, and unlike the Great Financial Crisis recovery, this one should not be dampened by an onerous regulatory reserve backdrop for financials (Basel III) or fear of a quick reversal by the Fed as the economy shows signs of improved growth. Indeed, by February 2010 the big banks were adding to reserves and the Fed had already begun removing excess accommodation while stating:
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