Lot of talk in the market about the decline in the Turkish Lire and how that could be similar to the middle of 2015, when emerging currencies were under pressure. It doesn’t look that way at this point because commodities are holding up well. It is important to remember that price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil was already down over 50% in 2014 before the crisis showed up meaningfully in the markets. WTI dropped by 58% from 06/14 – 01/15, yet the S&P 500 (SPX) didn’t peak until May 2015. Again, it doesn’t mean the Turkish crisis in the Lire and fear of contagion won’t increase volatility, but it would be too early to say the currency issue is leading to a global problem like 2015-16.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. All market data points and expectations are from Bloomberg as of 08/08/2018, and should not be relied upon as current thereafter. All earnings estimates and actual numbers are from Fidelity as of 08/08/2018.
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