Another morning we wake up and see S&P 500 (SPX) indicated limit down 5%. The fear of the virus has overwhelmed any monetary and fiscal policy put forth at this point because as of 03/16, the U.S. growth rate in cases was following a very similar trajectory as the European growth rate vs. showing any sign of flattening (Figure 1). This kind of volatility serves as evidence the market is still in the panic phase of the crash and why we would rather go on offense on a test of whatever low we are going to make vs. trying to pick the bottom. The market has blown through any oversold condition that would normally suggest a bounce was imminent, and the shutdown of economic activity as mandated by both the government and common sense has people more worried about human necessities than trying to figure out if the market is a good value.
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