The third overdone “recession” trade this cycle. As the equity market collapsed in late December, it was clear investors were fearful the Fed would ignore the benign inflation data and raise rates enough to invert the US Treasury Yield Curve and cause another credit crisis that would result in a recession. This was the third real recession scare since 2009, and like the others (2011-12 & 2015-16), our fundamental core thesis remains stubbornly positive and suggests no sign of recession:

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