I am on the second week of a long road trip.  The market is really reinforcing our view that more dovish Fed policy is the most important ingredient today.  We keep hearing people talk about the Trade deal and slowing growth, but the action tells a different story.  We got disappointing data in retail sales and no trade meeting with the Trump and Xi, but also had Fed Chair Powell on “60 Minutes” to talk about being patient and not raising rates any time soon.  With the S&P 500 (SPX) closing up 1.45% and no major news, it clearly shows in my opinion that the Fed is the most important, and the next rate move is likely down.

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