When you are flying a plane, the entire experience is weather-risk assessment that takes two forms. When it is perfectly clear out, you look for pilot reports for areas of unexpected turbulence or instability that may not be visible, yet will make the flight suddenly uncomfortable. Then there are the obvious cloud buildups that anyone could see and know not to fly directly into. Until now, our four key tactical indicators have been like the pilot reports in clear skies that remind us to pay attention and expect some bumps – nothing significant or sustainable, just a period of instability. At this point the duration of the extreme overbought condition coupled with excessive optimism represent cloud buildups that should be avoided. The developing conflict with Iran may act as a catalyst for the market to finally see a correction, but if it weren’t the Iran issue it would have been something else.

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