As you all know, we have done detailed analysis around the non-recession post crash environments of 1987, 1998, and 2011. The average S&P 500 (SPX) reflex rally off the low was 13.4% in 15 trading days. The current reflex rally was 13.8% in 17 trading days (peak was 01/18), so it is following the script (Figure 1). For those interested, the average test of the low in the three prior occurrences was 27 days later, which if applied to the current environment would represent a test of the low the first week of February.
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