The muscle memory of the 20% S&P 500 (SPX) market crash in the Q4/18 has investors wondering if there is going to be another major drawdown following the sharp rally back and slowing economic data. Indeed, the widely followed Atlanta Fed GDP Now Forecast model currently shows Q1/19 annualized growth at just 0.17%, increasing fear a recession might be on the near-term horizon. We are not overly concerned because (1) our core fundamental thesis remains positive, (2) our recession indicators continue to point to slower but positive growth, and (3) there is clearly is a seasonality to the Atlanta Fed data (Figure 1).
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