Good morning and Happy New Year to everyone.
The market is opening the year on a positive note due to the People’s Bank Of China (PBOC) adding liquidity by lowering Bank Reserve Requirements by 50 basis points. This is the 7th cut (4 in 2018 and 2 last year) in an effort to increase lending and stimulate economic growth. This is exactly what we are talking about when we say the folks printing the money continue to make money available. Of the four reasons for our bullish 2020 outlook, this one is the most important.
The market is likely to be a bit less liquid as many investors remain on vacation. Frankly, I am battling Bronchitis and hopefully have begun turning the corner, but am definitely feeling its effects. As a result, we will kick off the post-Holiday season in earnest on Monday with our Macro Slide Deck. As of right now, I really see no reason to change our current playbook as the market corrected last week, but bounced on Tuesday:
- We don’t want to add NEW money given the historically overbought/high optimism level in our four key tactical indicators
- We want to remain invested with what is already allocated given our still very positive core fundamental thesis and four bullish factors:
- The folks printing the money globally continue to make money more available
- There is plenty of money available to companies via corporate debt market and bank lending
- The domestic economy stays solid based on lower rates and tailwind of Millennial demographic
- A positive inflection of global growth as seen in OECD indicators
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index returns are unmanaged and do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses.
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