Many wonder how a strong year through October can rally even further into year-end. The most recent Barron’s Magazine “Big Money Poll” showed the least bullish level of professional money managers in the survey’s history (1999). This basically tells us that pros were expecting weakness in the equity market and therefore were not positioned for additional gains. The S&P 500 (SPX) was up 20% for the year in late July, and as a result it seems like many fund managers “locked in their year” given the uncertainty at the time of the (1) U.S./China Trade War, (2) potential Hard Brexit, (3) risk of a Trump Impeachment, and (4) weakening Economic Data.
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