The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco just published an economic letter (link below) that tackled two big pushbacks on our view the flattening and inversion of the U.S. Treasury Yield Curve historically acts as a buy signal:

  1. Which U.S. Treasury Yield Curve (YC) acts as a better predictor of recession, and
  2. Whether the lower Risk Premium and/or Quantitative Easing renders the predictive power of the U.S. Treasury Curve less useful.

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