How do you know when an oversold bounce is a relief rally like 2002 and 2008 vs. a fundamentally sustainable move off a recession-based low like 2003 or 2009? The size of the bounce in the SPX coupled with the extraordinary monetary and fiscal stimulus has many believing this ramp is more than an oversold bounce, representing an indication the market is looking through a possible recession that is just beginning to show up in the data. Thus far, the market experienced an extraordinary relief rally off the historic oversold condition in late March that likely was extended by the $2T Fed stimulus on April 9 that included buying municipal and high yield corporate debt.
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