I am taking a couple days for R&R because all the action during the holidays killed any idea of getting away from the markets.  Clearly, the news from AAPL is likely to hit the market, but if it wasn’t AAPL it would have been something else.  As we have been writing over the last few weeks and since the 12/24 low, a non-recession 20% drop in under 4-months has a very consistent playbook in our view:

  • There is a lot of violence immediately after low (got that)
  • There is a reflex rally over the next few weeks (getting that)
  • There is a retest 4-5 weeks later – EVERY time
  • Then new highs before the next recession.

Please see macro post for a full rundown of the playbook.

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