As we highlighted in the outlook ahead this morning, it is important to reinforce that small business is a MAJOR driver of the U.S. economy, and the broadest poll done by the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) reached a record level that was previously set in 1983 (Figure 1). Historically, the peak in the NFIB optimism Index during a cycle, leads a recession by 41 months. As a reminder, that agrees with the ISM Manufacturing reading from last week that also registered the highest point of the cycle, and leads a recession by 31 months. We would take either.
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