As Mike Welch pointed out in our closing comments, yesterday saw a new record high in the S&P 500 (SPX) and was the tightest range in the market since 12/28/17 despite the likelihood of the House impeachment vote of President Trump today. We simply haven’t focused on the process of the Impeachment vote because it is unlikely to affect the financial markets. Like so many other things, it doesn’t matter if it makes for great pundit commentary on TV – it only matters to us if it is likely to affect our four reasons for being bullish into 2020, and the political shenanigans in Washington have not changed it in any way:
- The Fed continues to tell us they won’t be raising rates for the foreseeable future due to low inflation
- There is plenty of money available to companies via the corporate debt market with corporate spreads to 10-year U.S. Treasuries very close to the best levels of the cycle
- The domestic economy driven by low rates and demographic tailwind of the Millennials remains solid
- There is a positive inflection in global economic activity from very weak levels that should only be helped by the phase 1 trade agreement between the U.S. and China
We will continue to focus on these factors until the data tells us to change – and they have not as evidenced in our December Macro Slide Deck.
Please note – I will be appearing in the first half hour of CNBC’s “Halftime Report” today at noon. It is always a spirited discussion with Scott Wapner and the panel so hope you can tune in.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index returns are unmanaged and do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses.
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