Good morning folks. Today I will be appearing on CNBC’s “Halftime Report.” This should be a fun show led by Scott Wapner with some of my favorite panelist including Josh Brown, Stephanie Link, Pete Najarian, and Joe Terranova.
The main topic is obviously going to be the new record high in the S&P 500 (SPX) yesterday led by the offensive sectors and matched by some pretty good market internals. It is hard to find much wrong with the recent run higher, especially given the pessimism among professional investors. In our travels over the past few weeks/months, we have been highlighting the defensive nature of investors due to the potential negatives of a Hard Brexit, possible Impeachment, US/China Trade War, Hong Kong Protests, and weaker global manufacturing data. Despite the potential pitfalls, the drop in interest rates have acted as a stabilizing catalyst, and as a result many have been caught off guard with excessively defensive positions. How do we know? Just look at the cover of Barron’s Magazine this past weekend.
Over the weekend Barron’s Magazine’s Big Money Poll showed just 27% of market pros they survey were bullish on the prospects for the market over the next twelve months. This was the least optimistic since the data began in 1999 and according to Barron’s, this twice a year poll showed the least amount of bulls in more than 20 years. Think about that – with the stock market at record highs, the NYSE Cumulative advance/decline line at record highs, and nearly every global central bank easing monetary policy, the market pros are more negative than during the “Dot-com” bust from 2000-02 and Global Financial Crisis in 2008-09. How do you possibly explain that level of nervousness despite the move in the markets?
Although the market may churn a bit near-term now that it has FINALLY made a new high, we continue to emphasize our 2020 SPX target of 3350 led by the offensive sectors. See you at noon on Halftime Report. Tony
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index returns are unmanaged and do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses.
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