Good Friday morning all.  The S&P 500 (SPX) futures have been all over the place since yesterday’s close, and are now moving higher on the back of the U.S. House of Representatives passing a $484 billion Covid-19 aid package, and the slowest rise in Covid-19 infections in a few weeks.  Following the game changing move by the Fed on April 9th, we posted about the epic battle between monetary and fiscal stimulus on one side and the weak economic and EPS data on the other side.  The SPX is literally within 10 points of the April 9th close and we continue to expect both bulls and bears to be frustrated over coming weeks  (Figure 1).  Just over the past two weeks there has been a crash to negative prices in West Texas Intermediate Oil and historically weak economic data and earnings reports, but on the plus side even more passed and promised Fed and Government assistance packages.  At the end of the day, the market has done very little.

Figure 1 – SPX clearly in “frustration phase” as epic battle rages on

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