Our weekly check of credit reinforces our view that any correction should be bought.  Remember, recessions happen when companies need money and don’t have access to it or can’t afford it. Our credit indicators show that is clearly not the case.  Credit stress can happen fast – but there is no sign of it in our favored indicators.


The three indicators we use to summarize our credit corporate credit view and potential stress are the Moody’s BAA Bond Index, Corporate High Yield Spreads, and the Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Subindices (NFCI).


Figure 1 – Moody’s BAA hits a record low – obviously no stress there.

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