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2018 Archive

Credit Stress Indicator update

Posted on Dec 31, 2018 | 7:14 am in Market Musings & Economic Commentary

In it still looks like a policy driven market event, we highlighted the various credit metrics we follow that suggest the recent approximately 20% drop in the S&P 500 Index…

Market Musings & Economic Commentary
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Unexpected drop in pending home sales

Posted on Dec 28, 2018 | 10:45 am in Macro Analysis & Slide Decks

While the data on new home sales continues to be delayed due to the partial government shut down, this morning we did get data on pending home sales from The…

Macro Analysis & Slide Decks
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Another extreme in the TICK Index

Posted on Dec 28, 2018 | 7:59 am in Market Musings & Economic Commentary

In October, we highlighted a somewhat rare reading in the TICK Index, when the index hit +1400 and -1400 in the same trading session.

Market Musings & Economic Commentary
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Consumer Confidence retrenching from recent cycle high

Posted on Dec 27, 2018 | 11:22 am in Macro Analysis & Slide Decks

The final look at consumer sentiment for 2018 was released this morning from the Conference Board and showed confidence is beginning to decline from cycle highs set just two months…

Macro Analysis & Slide Decks
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Over half of retail investors are now bearish on the market

Posted on Dec 27, 2018 | 10:19 am in Market Musings & Economic Commentary

Not surprisingly, the Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported an increase in bearish sentiment among individual investors in the latest poll.

Market Musings & Economic Commentary
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Home prices rise in October, matching estimate

Posted on Dec 27, 2018 | 9:39 am in Macro Analysis & Slide Decks

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index rose by 0.3% in October, matching the consensus estimate. This was slightly better than the 0.2% in September.  The chart shows…

Macro Analysis & Slide Decks
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The Day Ahead, Thursday December 27

Posted on Dec 27, 2018 | 9:16 am in Market Musings & Economic Commentary

Following a Wednesday that saw all three major markets close up over 4% on what we dubbed a “reflex rally” (read more about the reflex rally by clicking the link…

Market Musings & Economic Commentary
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Still looks like policy-driven market event

Posted on Dec 26, 2018 | 9:21 am in Macro Analysis & Slide Decks

Human nature is very consistent – pain is the ultimate motivator for change, and a 20% market swoon in under three months has most tactical and historical indicators suggesting extreme…

Macro Analysis & Slide Decks
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Brief thought as stocks continue lower

Posted on Dec 24, 2018 | 12:42 pm in Market Musings & Economic Commentary

Pain is the best motivator for most people to change, but somehow this administration hasn't learned that tweeting keeps creating more pain. There is a total lack of confidence in…

Market Musings & Economic Commentary
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Extremes and expectations

Posted on Dec 24, 2018 | 10:33 am in Macro Analysis & Slide Decks

The S&P 500 (SPX) dropped by 7% last week and broke through the bottom from late October through early December. That means the whole intermediate-term bottoming process will need to…

Macro Analysis & Slide Decks
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  • Market Musings

    End of week recap
    Mar 24, 2023 | 5:19 pm
    Stronger PMI data
    Mar 24, 2023 | 11:14 am
    4 Key tactical indicators
    Mar 24, 2023 | 7:24 am
  • Macro Analysis

    Video – Imminent recession signposts
    Mar 24, 2023 | 1:03 pm
    We recently qualified the SPX bounce potential (and what happens after) based on recent severe weakness in the BKX
    Mar 21, 2023 | 3:54 pm
    Playing Whac-A-Mole
    Mar 20, 2023 | 11:13 am
  • Conference Call Information

    Replay Available for March Gold Conference Call
    Mar 7, 2023 | 5:28 pm
    Gold Level Conference Call Today: March 7th 2:00 pm ET
    Mar 7, 2023 | 6:07 am
    Gold Level Conference Call Tomorrow: March 7th 2:00 pm ET
    Mar 6, 2023 | 8:23 am
  • Media Coverage

    CNBC Closing Bell: Overtime 3/15/23
    Mar 16, 2023 | 4:35 pm
    CNBC Fast Money 2/21/2023
    Feb 22, 2023 | 9:54 am
    CNBC Closing Bell 1/31/23
    Feb 1, 2023 | 10:36 am

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