Macro

Tony is best known for the practical application of macro data.  He will use his 30 years of experience to evaluate what data matters and how you can apply it to your investment process.

Nearing point to get more offensive

In our view, the market is still in the corrective process that should set the stage for the next intermediate-term leg higher as the Fed gets more aggressive in…

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Expect SPX move back to low – then buy it

Ramp in bearishness a great signal when to add exposure. The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported bearish sentiment among individual investors jumped to 48.2% from 24.06% in…

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August Macro Slide Deck

A generational change in the way Fed views inflation suggests a more aggressive Fed. For the better part of the last 40 years, the Fed has been worried about…

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Avoiding get there-itis

When I was learning to fly a few years ago, my flight instructor gave me a talk about “get there-itis.” It refers to deciding to fly because you had…

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A generational change at the Fed

The U.S. and the world have literally tried to fix an excessive amount of debt by causing exponentially more debt (Figure 1). For the better part of the last…

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Tactical pullback and EPS update

In our note last week, Time for a pullback, we outlined the recent new highs and overbought conditions in the market that suggested to us that a minor correction…

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Time for a pullback

The S&P 500 (SPX) is up 20% for the year and 6% for the current quarter, which we believe discounts the likely July Fed rate cut and a less-negative…

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