Video – Imminent recession signposts
In this short video we highlight our ways to identify the start of a recession, whether the initial Fed rate cut following a tightening cycle is a buy signal,…
Read MoreWe recently qualified the SPX bounce potential (and what happens after) based on recent severe weakness in the BKX
In Banks suggests bounce then trounce, we noted the historic drop in the KBW Bank Stock Index (BKX) and what it means for the broader market.
Read MorePlaying Whac-A-Mole
In less than two weeks, traders have gone from expectations of a Fed hike of 50-basis points to tame inflation, to having a coordinated announcement from the major global…
Read MoreVideo – Still following the money
In this short video we highlight how the current banking issues reinforce our view for recession, "the" low, and opportunity ahead.
Read MoreRemain focused on the main issue – money availability
Since the Fed began aggressively raising rates we have remained cautious on U.S. equities because the Fed was lifting rates in a historic way into a generationally levered system.…
Read MoreGuessing game not worth it
This market is all over the place and the smartest people I talk to feel the same way as me – to do anything or make any assumptions based…
Read MoreEarly thoughts as crisis worsens
The 2-year U.S. Treasury Yield is down over 50-basis points this morning on the fear of a worsening financial crisis.
Read MoreBanks suggests bounce then trounce
Over the past three days, the KBW Bank Stock Index (BKX) has dropped 11.94%.
Read MoreVideo – Our take on mixed message from Fed
In this short video, we cover the mixed message the Fed sent this week, and why we are sticking to our game plan.
Read MoreMarch Macro Slide Deck
The better-than-expected economic data and subsequent rise in inflation expectations may throw a wrench into Fed Chair Powell’s “disinflation” view.
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