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September 2019 Archive

Stop looking for what was already found

Posted on Sep 30, 2019 | 2:43 pm in Macro Analysis & Slide Decks

There is no need to look for something that is hiding in plain sight. While the financial media and macro community try to figure out when the next major recession…

Macro Analysis & Slide Decks
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Early Monday Look

Posted on Sep 30, 2019 | 7:23 am in Market Musings & Economic Commentary

Although the majority of the Sunday talk shows were drive by politics, we remain focused on the data:

Market Musings & Economic Commentary
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Household debt service and financial obligations ratios fall in latest report

Posted on Sep 27, 2019 | 12:11 pm in Market Musings & Economic Commentary

The quarterly data from the Federal Reserve Board showed both household debt service and financial obligations ratios declined in the second quarter.

Market Musings & Economic Commentary
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Consumer spending slowed in August

Posted on Sep 27, 2019 | 9:51 am in Macro Analysis & Slide Decks

Personal income and spending data were released this morning and it showed that despite an increase in incomes, consumers reined in spending in August.

Macro Analysis & Slide Decks
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They are giving us the playbook

Posted on Sep 27, 2019 | 7:42 am in Market Musings & Economic Commentary

On the last day of my trip though the UK and Channel Islands, something struck me as I was gearing up for the next talk – the folks printing…

Market Musings & Economic Commentary
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GDP growth unrevised at 2.0% in the second quarter

Posted on Sep 26, 2019 | 9:38 am in Macro Analysis & Slide Decks

The final print for second quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was released and it showed the economy expanded at a 2.0% pace.

Macro Analysis & Slide Decks
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Investors are more bearish or neutral on the market direction than bullish

Posted on Sep 26, 2019 | 8:24 am in Market Musings & Economic Commentary

Bullish individual investor sentiment dropped back below bearish sentiment in the latest poll.

Market Musings & Economic Commentary
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President optimistic about potential China deal

Posted on Sep 25, 2019 | 7:13 pm in Market Musings & Economic Commentary

The S&P 500 (SPX) finished up 0.62% today after President Trump stated his optimism about getting a China deal completed. Treasury yields were higher. Crude (CL1) finished down -1.38%…

Market Musings & Economic Commentary
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NFCI data suggests financial conditions loosened last week

Posted on Sep 25, 2019 | 12:29 pm in Market Musings & Economic Commentary

The Chicago Fed NFCI Index and its sub-indices is made up of 105 credit stress indicators and has risen above zero prior to past recessions.

Market Musings & Economic Commentary
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Strong new home sales in August

Posted on Sep 25, 2019 | 10:42 am in Macro Analysis & Slide Decks

Lower mortgage rates continued to help the housing market in August.

Macro Analysis & Slide Decks
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