In a post coming soon to the Macro Section, we discuss how the developing conflict with Iran may act as a catalyst for the market to finally see a correction, but if it weren’t the Iran issue it would have been something else.  As we have highlighted, the extreme level of optimism and overbought condition over recent weeks created an environment ripe for a correction, and we now believe the market has the potential to hit an air pocket as an unexpected event could be seen as a risk to the fundamental outlook.

 

How do you differentiate between a temporary correction vs. something more significant?  The setup is very different than just before the three bear market environments this cycle:

 




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