Earlier today ADP reported better than expected payroll growth in December. While that is good news because our bull case this year surrounds a reacceleration in economic activity, it is important to remember the data is likely to be revised. For example, November was initially reported to be up 67K jobs, but that was revised to 124K in today’s report. Think about that – the November number was revised higher by almost 100%!
Please, please, please – do not use any specific data point release as a reason to change an investment thesis. The trend is way more important than the data point because it can smooth out the impact of revision on a specific economic release.
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Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. All data points are sourced from Bloomberg as of 01/08/20 unless noted otherwise.
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