Good morning folks – wow that was a cold walk from the Port Authority to our office.
The financial media and market comments this morning are all about the continued new record highs in the market, and frankly I feel silly for continually expecting a correction over the past month. Since my friends remind me “feelings aren’t facts,” I decided to look at the data to see what the market has done on this run higher. The answer is not much. The S&P 500 (SPX) is up just 1% since the day before Thanksgiving (3% from initial pause call in mid-Nov) and our four key tactical indicators remain a bit too optimistic causing us to stay in the “don’t chase the tape” mode. Again, we are not suggesting a defensive position given our recent increase in our 2020 SPX target, but we would simply prefer to add NEW money to the equity market once our favored indicators reach a level that suggests a better entry point.
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