As we entered 2020, the U.S. was experiencing the longest economic expansion and bull market in history, but that looks to have dramatically changed in just three weeks. When we downgraded our market view on January 20, we had no idea a Covid-19 pandemic and oil price war would drive the market down over 20%, create a credit crisis, and ultimately shut down global economic activity, but that is exactly what’s happening. We believe that until there is proper testing and clarity for the Covid-19 virus in the U.S., it is impossible to come up with a reasonable turning point and fundamental assumption, so we are therefore relying on human nature following a market crash as a guide.
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