Today is going to feature two economic data points that could bring some big volatility.  First we get the monthly Payroll Employment Report at 8:30am, and then we get the ISM Manufacturing Survey at 10am.  Remember, it was the ISM last month that created a sharp decline in the S&P 500 (SPX) because it showed a contraction in manufacturing activity.  Again, you know our thought there – we ARE in a manufacturing recession globally and have been for the better part of the year but are beginning to come out of it.  All this data does is confirm what we know – this is the 3rd mini-recession of the cycle.

 

Our point is that if these numbers do create any weakness – we believe History and Fed suggest buying any weakness.  In yesterday’s post we noted that since 1950, if the SPX was up over 20% (7 occurrences) it tended to be positive through year end and the next year.  This is a really important post to remember if we do get increased volatility with the economic data.

 

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index returns are unmanaged and do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses.




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