Just to reiterate – the entire bull story and our expectations for a new high in 2019 comes from the expectations of a sharp slowdown in economic activity, but not so much as to be in recession. This was highlighted in our Macro conference call Tuesday, and our analog to 1995 discussed late last year – You need the Fed to not only stay neutral, but likely ease if you expect new highs.
Today’s retail sales data support that view rather than hurt the bull story. The market is set up for a pause in the upside and minor correction given move, so weak data might be an excuse for profit taking, but no reason to change story.
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