Median post-crash reflex rally still points to a retest… The SPX has rallied 13.5% off the 12/24/18 low in just 17 trading days. While the reflex rally seems unbelievable, based on the history of non-recession post-crash environments since 1950, it is right around the median performance of the three prior occurrences (Fig 1). While only a data set of three (1987, 1998, 2011), it is very rare to have such sharp 20% swoons in so short a period of time – under four months. Although all three market events retested the low, many wonder if this post-crash ramp could be different given the two 90% upside price and volume breadth days on the NYSE right after the turn.

 

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