There is clearly a battle going on between the influence of Monetary (Fed) and Fiscal (Gov’t) stimulus vs. economic outlook. Over the past two weeks the Fed is winning over economy because their intentions are clear, while we have yet to get most economic news, which means economy and EPS are unclear. As we said earlier, the Fed likely takes the worst case off the table – another credit crisis on top of what we have already seen, but we have not seen the impact yet of what the economy is going to look like, because we are still shut in our homes.
The clarity of Fed intention is likely discounted with the recent 23% relief rally, but we do not want to chase the upside because there is no visibility to when we are going to go back to work and what companies – especially small ones – will be in business when we do.
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