Waiting for rally requirement indicators but expect reflex rally
The Fed raised rates for the ninth time, only lowered expectations for 2019 hikes from three to two, and did not adopt a more dovish tone in its press release.…
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Tony is best known for the practical application of macro data. He will use his 30 years of experience to evaluate what data matters and how you can apply it to your investment process.
Rhyming while retesting
Historical analysis of the mid-1990s suggests 2019 is all about a change in Fed perceptions vs. slowing growth and trade tensions. The market has been in the intermediate-term bottoming process…
Read MoreSome more similarities to recent stock market corrections
Highlights This equity market correction has now reached the magnitude of some, but not all, of the other major corrections of this bull market Credit flows have again temporarily stopped…
Read MoreContinuing “go around” as we wait for rally requirements
Have you ever been on a commercial flight where the plane is about to land, but the pilot puts in full power and takes off again? In aviation it is…
Read MoreEquity investors look for exit points as pensions look for entry points
Highlights The most recent stock market bounce proved fleeting as this correction remains on track to be a 3-4 month event Part of the Treasury curve inverted in response…
Read MoreData and secret weapons offer insight
Clearly, the market remains in the bottoming process following Tuesday’s 3% drop on the back of skepticism of the G20 Trump/Xi meeting, Brexit uncertainty, a near inversion of the yield…
Read MoreExamining the stock market’s latest bounce
Highlights Stocks bounced last week as this correction remains on track to be a three- to four-month event The pickup in stock market volume during last week’s bounce is…
Read MoreA little breathing room for leg higher
The two main drivers of the correction that began September 21 in an environment ripe for volatility were 1) the September 19 threat by President Trump to increase tariffs on…
Read MoreSome implications of the incredible shrinking junk bond market
Highlights The junk bond market has been shrinking for nearly three years as issuers and investors opt for different structures Overall credit growth continues to outpace economic growth as…
Read MoreIdentifying rally requirements
Although there are plenty of fundamental excuses for the retest of the October low last week, we continue to believe it is all part of the bottoming process playbook we…
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