Yield curve steepening signals recession
The steepening of the yield curve is signaling imminent recession. In just the past month, the US economy has gone from reaccelerating to a near shutdown that should kickstart a…
Read MoreExtraordinary measures for extraordinary crisis
Another morning we wake up and see S&P 500 (SPX) indicated limit down 5%. The fear of the virus has overwhelmed any monetary and fiscal policy put forth at this…
Read MoreSticking with the plan and suspending target
Good morning and first and foremost, we hope that all of you and your families stay healthy and safe and please follow the Covid-19 protocols in your communities. It will…
Read MoreWhat happens after a crash – big bounce then test
Yesterday’s drop of nearly 10% in the S&P 500 (SPX) was the biggest one-day drop since the 1987 market crash and had the market down 26.9% from the peak just…
Read MoreMarch Macro Slide Deck- Human nature is the driver
As we entered 2020, the U.S. was experiencing the longest economic expansion and bull market in history, but that looks to have dramatically changed in just three weeks. When we…
Read MoreHuman nature and the bottoming process
We believe the August 2011 market crash and subsequent bottoming process (Figure 1) illustrates how the post whoosh market environment could play out in coming weeks and months. While all…
Read MorePronounced weakness sets stage for multi-week rally
There has been an extreme “risk-off” move in the financial markets due to the fear surrounding the COVID-19 virus and the most recent Saudi oil decision. The S&P futures opened…
Read MoreThis looks to be a doozy
As I write this, the S&P 500 (SPX) Futures are down over 2%. The fear of the spreading Covid-19 and the resulting economic and corporate impact is accelerating by the…
Read MoreThursday credit indicators update
It has been a week of big swings in stocks with falling treasury yields.
Read MorePost whoosh pop and drop-part 2
Yesterday’s 5.09% ramp in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was the largest one-day gain since the end of the Global Financial Crisis.
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