Do-no-harm Fed meeting supports offense
Yesterday the FOMC decided to lower the Fed Funds target range by 25 basis points to 1.75-2% while lowering the interest rate on excess reserves to 1.80% from 2.10%.…
Read MoreMacro
Tony is best known for the practical application of macro data. He will use his 30 years of experience to evaluate what data matters and how you can apply it to your investment process.
Oil as a % of Disposable Personal Income is historically low, even on an uptick
The near 10% rise in the price of West Texas Intermediate-term Crude Oil (WTI) Front Month Contract is one of the most dramatic one-day rises in history. That has…
Read MorePost mini-recession market and sector playbook
We believe the U.S. is emerging from the third mini-recession this cycle, with the low in the S&P 500 (SPX) leading the low in the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond…
Read MoreReplay of the September Dwyer Strategy conference call
A replay of today’s conference call is now available for Gold level subscribers.
Read MoreSeptember Macro Slide Deck – Emerging from third “unique” mini-recession of the cycle
The curve inversion starts a very long countdown clock to both a recession AND record highs.
Read MoreSentiment + Fed = upside
The S&P 500 (SPX) is just a few percent below an all-time high, yet it has felt like we are drowning in the negative news backdrop and geopolitical drama.…
Read MoreGame-changing event from former Vice-Chair of FOMC Bill Dudley
In a Bloomberg op-ed, Bill Dudley, a former President of the New York Fed, openly states that “Trump’s reelection arguably presents a threat to the U.S. and global economy, to…
Read MoreThe countdown has begun – but expect upside first
After a long wait, the 2-10-year U.S. Treasury Yield Curve finally inverted, which means our countdown clock has started for a recession and “the” cycle peak in the S&P…
Read MoreTime to react
Sometimes it is better to react to market conditions rather than try to anticipate the next move. We believe the market has been in tactical no-man’s land following the…
Read MoreTactical no-man’s land ahead of Fed speak
The market rally over the past two days has been almost as dramatic as the 3% drop that preceded it, and neither may be “signaling” anything regarding direction. We…
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