Initial thoughts after Fed decision and press conference
Summary – The hope the Fed may pause rate hikes soon or be able to engineer a soft landing looks increasingly unlikely.
Read MoreVideo – Our plan as year-end rally plays out
In this short video we outline our tactical game plan for the year-end rally, and what similar environments produced for how it ended…
Read MoreVideo – The state of the market
In this short video, we discuss our view of the fundamental and tactical backdrop following the ramp off the October low…
Read MoreVideo – Qualifying the year-end rally
In this short video we use history and data to qualify the year-end rally upside and whether it is “the” low…
Read MoreRates, money, and messaging suggest it’s “a” low
Our game plan coming out of the "fall fall" was to see a year-end ramp given the extreme whoosh and what history suggests following drops of more than 20%…
Read MoreMarket thoughts after CPI (from vacation)
Unfortunately our fundamental story remains the same and the recent PPI and CPI data continue to reinforce our view that the Fed is going to continue raising rates in…
Read MoreOctober Macro Slide Deck
After the “fall fall,” our game plan called for year-end ramp, but it wasn't supposed to be up 5.5% in two days.
Read MoreVideo – Watching 2-year U.S. Treasury as guide
While an extreme oversold condition may produce “a” low, we continue to look for a true Fed pivot and peak in the 2-year U.S. Treasury Yield to produce “the”…
Read More