Economic: Record drop in Philly Fed Index
It comes as no surprise, the manufacturing data out of the Pennsylvania region reported this morning took a big hit along with the data from New York out earlier this…
Read MoreMacro & Economic
Tony is best known for the practical application of macro data. He will use his 30 years of experience to evaluate what data matters and how you can apply it to your investment process.
Yield curve steepening signals recession
The steepening of the yield curve is signaling imminent recession. In just the past month, the US economy has gone from reaccelerating to a near shutdown that should kickstart a…
Read MoreExtraordinary measures for extraordinary crisis
Another morning we wake up and see S&P 500 (SPX) indicated limit down 5%. The fear of the virus has overwhelmed any monetary and fiscal policy put forth at this…
Read MoreEconomic: Let the parade of weaker economic data begin
This morning we got one of the first March readings on the manufacturing outlook and not surprisingly, there was a sharp reversal from the February.
Read MoreSticking with the plan and suspending target
Good morning and first and foremost, we hope that all of you and your families stay healthy and safe and please follow the Covid-19 protocols in your communities. It will…
Read MoreWhat happens after a crash – big bounce then test
Yesterday’s drop of nearly 10% in the S&P 500 (SPX) was the biggest one-day drop since the 1987 market crash and had the market down 26.9% from the peak just…
Read MoreMarch Macro Slide Deck- Human nature is the driver
As we entered 2020, the U.S. was experiencing the longest economic expansion and bull market in history, but that looks to have dramatically changed in just three weeks. When we…
Read MoreHuman nature and the bottoming process
We believe the August 2011 market crash and subsequent bottoming process (Figure 1) illustrates how the post whoosh market environment could play out in coming weeks and months. While all…
Read MorePronounced weakness sets stage for multi-week rally
There has been an extreme “risk-off” move in the financial markets due to the fear surrounding the COVID-19 virus and the most recent Saudi oil decision. The S&P futures opened…
Read MoreEconomic: Wicked good jobs report and no one seems to care
The payroll report out this morning showed the jobs market continued to run hot last month
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