Why current correction is not like the others
We continue to believe the whole bull story for the equity markets is the weaker economic data. The S&P 500 (SPX) suffered a 5% correction from peak based on…
Read MoreMacro
Tony is best known for the practical application of macro data. He will use his 30 years of experience to evaluate what data matters and how you can apply it to your investment process.
Insanity usually means opportunity
The popular definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. We disagree, and believe the true definition of insanity is…
Read MoreNo reason to change our game plan
We will keep this short and to the point. In our note “The cause for pause,” we highlighted the likelihood of a limited and temporary 3-5% pullback in the…
Read MoreMay Macro Slide Deck
Initiating 2020 SPX Target of 3,350. Throughout this cycle, the market has been driven by the perception of Fed policy, availability of credit, EPS growth, and what investors are…
Read MoreThe cause for pause
Although our fundamental core thesis remains positive, given a backdrop of low inflation, the dovish Fed pivot, a re-steepening yield curve, slowing but positive growth, better-thanexpected EPS, and valuation…
Read MoreBond pet peeve
A big pet peeve for me is when folks generalize a huge asset class and then suggest it is sending investors some kind of message.
Read MoreFewer retail investors bullish on the market
The Investors Intelligent report yesterday, showed that despite the recent market gains, there was a decline in the percent of newsletter writers that were bullish on the market.…
Read MoreStop looking for what is already in plain sight – the market is consolidating internally
The sentiment in Brazil is very similar to the sentiment in the US – “bullish but….” The current activity in the market is exactly what we were referring to…
Read MoreTaking breather in adventure
Last spring, in an effort to get back into shape I began training for an “orienteering” race, where you go into the middle of a mountain range and…
Read MoreQ1 EPS outlook and tactical update
Q1/19 EPS estimates look to be down for the first time since Q3/16. Now that the unofficial start to Q1 earnings season is set to begin tomorrow with earnings…
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